Confirmation of salmon spawning in arctic brings questions for future international management

FAIRBANKS, Alaska (KTVF) - In the wake of declining salmon runs on the Yukon River and a need to uphold treaties with Canada, the increase of salmon spawning in arctic rivers brings questions how the resource will be managed in the future. It also begs predictions of what will happen next as salmon move north.

As UAF research confirmed an increase of salmon spawning in arctic rivers north of the Brooks Range, there are conclusions that can be drawn from the data ranges for future trends in salmon populations and how those populations will be managed by both the United States and Canada.

The gathered data shows that all five species of salmon have increased spawning in these rivers, with the most common species being chum, pink and sockeye. How the increase of salmon will impact other species in the arctic is one consideration. Another consideration is the impact it will have to residents and fish management. While there could be an overabundance of salmon for those unaccustomed to this way of life, those that are accustomed to ample fish supplies could endure salmon droughts. This could present challenges in fish management both locally and internationally.

The data does however provide further evidence of salmon, among other marine species, moving north as bodies of water in the last frontier continue to grow warmer. Scientists say these findings can help better predict how various areas might see change in the future should those trends continue.

“It’s pretty clear we’re in this like goldilocks perfect stage in Bristol Bay and it’s going to have to come back down to reality at some point,” said Peter Westley, a professor and researcher at UAF’s College of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences. He believes that overtime, the record large populations of salmon seen in Bristol Bay will move north of the Alaska Peninsula, mirroring the data of increase salmon populations in arctic rivers. “There’s reason to think that’s going to keep shifting further north to where potentially Bristol Bay gets beyond in terms of warming, for it’s hosts, it’s too warm,” Westley said.

With that likely shift, Westley predicts that areas north of Bristol Bay and the Alaska Peninsula may soon become the hot spot for commercial fishing operations in the sea.

Looking inland, the increase of salmon in the arctic might mean trouble for future diplomatic relations between Alaska and Canada. As of right now, the United States and Canada are part of the Pacific Salmon Treaty which requires the two countries to cooperate in research and management of salmon. It also requires that Alaska deliberately lets a specific quantity of salmon enter Canada.

This has been difficult to sustain however as most salmon enter Canada through the Yukon River, but those runs have been poor in recent years. As the rivers north of the Brooks Range do not connect to the Yukon or Canada, Westley says the political implications of managing these salmon populations may have to change. Although, those discussions have not occurred yet, if they ever do at all.

“The Pacific Salmon Treaty and by extension the Yukon Treaty, really relies on the fish that go up that river,” Westley said in regards to the Yukon River. While other rivers, primarily in Southeast Alaska, do go into Canada, the largest portion of the shared salmon populations have historically entered our neighboring country via the Yukon River. “So these fish that are around the corner, they’re in the wild west of sorts when it comes to policy, so they don’t really apply to treaties and that kind of stuff as of yet,” added Westley.

Those discussion may still happen in the future especially if the salmon continue to move north, avoiding the Yukon River. It may also be that the fish are not avoiding the Yukon River, they may simply face too many obstacles before reaching Canada. As waters warm, the fish face increased biological stress on top of the hurdles they already face such as commercial trolls and wildlife. That increased stress likely makes the fish more susceptible to disease and decline in population.

If policy changes are addressed, the potential decisions could face backlash from residents in the arctic. Those that live along the Colville River, where UAF was conducting research, have expressed concerns about changes to the management of salmon populations in the arctic. According to Westley, those residents do not want to see any changes to management nor do they want to see an increase of commercial fishing operations in the area.

As changes in climate and water temperatures occur future implications of salmon migration to the arctic will continue to unfold.

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