It could be possible that trends such as the use of electric vehicles and heat pumps will expand across the Railbelt over the next 25 years, but several paths are still being modeled in a study conducted by the Alaska Center for Energy and Power at the University of Alaska Fairbanks.
The Railbelt Decarbonization study aims to take a look at what pathways and tools Alaska utilities can do to reduce carbon emissions on the Railbelt without sacrificing reliable and affordable power.
Phylicia Cicilio and Jeremy VanderMeer, two of study’s researchers working for the Alaska Center for Power and Energy, provided an update Tuesday at the Westmark Hotel Gold Room.
“The goal of this project is to quantify the economics and reliability implications of these scenarios and create invaluable information,” Cicilio, the lead researcher, said. “We are not predicting the future or saying this will happen.
The study is still in its first phase, with a goal to examine the various technologies, grid transmission and economic modeling and the impact on rates.
“These things are based on the data we have now and we should be talking about the impact as we move forward,” Cicilio said. “Situations are going to change, prices are going to change.”
Cicilio’s update included information on electric vehicles, transmission and use of residential solar.
The project includes input from a technical advisory group that includes engineers from the Railbelt utilities, including Golden Valley Electric Association, from the Alaska Energy Authority and other stakeholders.
Cicilio said the study has settled on four scenarios following a public survey, including a high electrification that combines new wind, solar and tidal energy sources; and three scenarios that project moderate growth, each with their own mix of new energy sources.
Cicilio said another goal was to model and reduce blackout risk in the event an energy source fails somewhere.
Saving infrastructure, she noted, might include a drop in the load on the system, creating pocketed blackouts instead of an entire collapse. Load is measured by demand on the system by all the people using it.
Different scenarios
All of the scenarios try to emphasize reliability, affordability and carbon reduction by 2050, said VanderMeer.
“To get there, there are virtually unlimited options we could take to get there, some probably better and some probably not so good,” VanderMeer said. “We don’t know which path is the best way to get there, but we are limited in what pathways to take.”
The study involves energy analyses from existing and planned energy facilities ranging from wind and solar projects to hydroelectric.
One of the biggest challenges, he noted, was projecting the Railbelt’s energy needs over the next 25 years.
“The load is going to change significantly and one of the biggest questions is what is that load going to do,” VanderMeer said. “In the past, Railbelt growth was pretty predictable but we’re starting to electrify things like heating and electric vehicles.”
Other factors include the rate cost based on how much power will be needed and what infrastructure the grid needs to be resilient.
“The questions we are trying to answer is what do you build between now and 2050,” VanderMeer. “There’s tons of options and you’ve got to know what and where to build it, how to run the system and what runs when.”
Sources of power could include commercial and residential solar, advanced nuclear, wind, hydropower, a tidal power site and long-duration energy storage.
Regardless of whatever option was being modeled, VanderMeer most will have some fossil fuel redundancy.
“There is going to be an additional cost to get rid of that last little bit of fuel,” VanderMeer said.
Load analysis
VanderMeer noted that measuring how and when demand on the grid determines what will make sense for system needs.
The decarbonization study takes into account all three Railbelt regions, based in part on 292,035 commercial and residential buildings and nearly 500,000 vehicles that might rely on the system for winterization.
Power demands outside an uptick in adoption of electric vehicles and heat pumps assume a 1% growth when factoring in moderate population growth.
From there, he said that one of the models takes into account an increase in the use of electric vehicles and adoption of heat pumps.
“We’re still very early in the electrification of a lot of things, it’s still very much a guess,” VanderMeer said. “A lot of things are changing between now and 2050, maybe it’s realistic, maybe not.”
Using slightly aggressive forecasting, use of electric vehicles on the Railbelt could increase by nearly 70% by 2050.
“This is a fuel transition technology where if a lot of people do it, there will be a tipping scale and a large shift … than other technologies,” Cicilio said. She added adoption rates are slower in Alaska because of the vehicles energy efficiency and demand in colder climates.
Steve Colt, another researcher on the decarbonization study, noted that the research on electric vehicles was pulled from across Alaska.
“My observation is that we are just beginning to understand what it’s going to mean having a fleet of electric vehicles, but we have enough data to know it’s possible,” Colt said. “The question comes down to the cost and relative competitiveness of electric vehicles in cold places.”
Adoption of heat pumps on the Railbelt lacks historical data, she said, and could only secure one Alaska-based model from a co-op that adopted them over a five year period.
“We took their forecast and increased it to include all the Railbelt,” Cicilio said. She said the results took into account a 14.4% increase in adoption by 2050, but called the projection “the most iffy forecast we have due to the natural gas situation in the Cook Inlet.”
Most homes in Anchorage utilize natural gas, but Cook Inlet’s supply of gas deposit reserves are uncertain as Hilcorp stated it cannot commit to new contracts.
“If there is no new natural gas or becomes less affordable in the future, this heat pump forecast could change drastically,” Cicilio said.
Power generation
questions
She noted that overall there will be challenges and opportunities. Any increase in demand will require more power generation during the winter months, and that comes with the challenge of what to do with the excess power in summer months when demand falls.
Even at more moderate scenarios, both summer and winter loads could double, while an aggressive model forecasts nearly triple the amount on the Railbelt.
“If you double your load, this has massive implications for power generation needs,” Cicilio said. “These are the types of conversations we want to encourage with utilities and boards.”
ACEP’s full first phase report will be completed by January. For more information, visit tinyurl.com/4czcxzjy.