Published Mar 16, 2023 The Pretty Rocks landslide, spurred by greater warmth and rainfall, will force Denali National Park's main access road to close at the halfway point in 2023 for the second full summer.
To help park managers plan for and mitigate such events, UAF scientists assessed future landslide risks along road corridors in Denali and other Alaska parks.
“Park managers were interested in looking at park climate data to figure out how much warming has occurred and what the future might bring,” explained Pam Sousanes, a physical scientist with the agency in Fairbanks.
Sousanes turned to Rick Lader and a team of climate modelers at the UAF International Arctic Research Center.
“In Denali we had data from sites that were relatively close to the landslide area and we were able to determine that the average annual temperatures were approaching, and in some cases, exceeding the thawing threshold of zero degrees Celsius [32 Fahrenheit],” said Sousanes. “We wanted some way to incorporate those into really good downscaled climate projections, and we didn't have the skills to do that. So we reached out.”
Lader and his team used the data from park weather stations to fine-tune projections from global climate models. The International Arctic Research Center provides this dynamical downscaling service to Alaska’s decision-makers so they can incorporate climate data into local planning.
“We’re right on the cusp in Denali and Wrangell-St. Elias. These changes are happening now, and they're happening fast,” said Sousanes. “And even though they’re out in the future for Gates of the Arctic, we’re still moving in that direction.”
Sousanes said the landslide risk assessment will pay off years down the road as Alaska park managers plan for new and existing infrastructure to stand up in a changing climate.
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