Published Aug 16, 2023 by Carter DeJong The weather phenomenon known as El Niño is back, causing weather changes across the globe, including Alaska’s Interior.
El Niño may result in less of the 40- to 50- below zero cold spells known all too well for people living in the Interior, said Javier Fochesatto, University of Alaska Fairbanks professor of atmospheric science.
“Precipitation may become wetter,” Fochesatto said.
That means snow could become heavier, putting strain on the roofs of houses.
El Niño is the increase in surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean around South America which causes disruptions in normal weather patterns around the world, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. It occurs irregularly, sometimes every two years or as seldom as once every decade.
The National Weather Service classifies El Niño events as weak, moderate or strong. As of August, the NWS gave a 66% chance of a strong El Niño this winter.
The last El Niño event occurred in 2018-2019, but it was considered mild, said Rick Thoman, climate specialist at the International Arctic Research Center.
El Niño’s effect on winter precipitation levels is difficult to predict, Thoman said, but it tends to favor lower levels of snow. The 2015- 2016 El Niño was considered strong and amounted to only 3 inches of snow from December through February, he said.
“It might be warmer than normal, it might be around normal,” Thoman said.
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