| UA News for January 22, 2024 |
| In today's news: Russia comprises a huge part of the Arctic, but since the invasion of Ukraine collaboration between Russian scientists and their peers have ended, resulting in a concerning loss of important data on permafrost thawing and other climate change indicators; researchers with the Alaska Center for Energy and Power released a report about the Railbelt's future energy options; for the first time the recycling and sustainability symposium was held in Fairbanks with UAF and others joining to discuss recycling in Alaska; a UAF graduate student spoke with the Sitka Rotary Club about research on the Mt. Edgecumbe volcano; Interior Alaska felt strong shaking when a 5.3 magnitude earthquake struck Salcha on Friday afternoon; and residents of the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta experienced an unseasonably warm January after a cold December in what climatologist Rick Thoman describes as a yo-yo kind of winter.
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| | | Why the war in Ukraine is bad for climate science | Published Jan 22, 2024 by Rebecca Hersher Lack of data about conditions in the Russian Arctic is already hampering climate science, and will cause ever-growing gaps in our understanding of how climate change affects the fastest-warming region of the planet, scientists warn.
The Arctic is warming up to four times faster than the Earth as a whole. And Russia has more Arctic land than any other nation. But, since Russia invaded Ukraine, it's been increasingly difficult for climate scientists in Russia to collaborate or share data about conditions in the country's vast frozen areas.
In order to build climate models that can accurately predict what will happen to the Arctic in the future, scientists need measurements from across the Arctic. If the available data is concentrated in a few places, like Alaska, Canada and Scandinavia, and excludes Russia's vast Arctic expanses, then the models will be increasingly inaccurate, the study finds.
"It's a huge landmass," says Ken Tape, an ecologist at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. "You can't ignore it."
A few years ago, Tape helped start the Arctic Beaver Observation Network, so scientists all around the Arctic could collaborate and share data. But with the invasion of Ukraine, the dream of Russian collaboration in the project stalled, he says. "We're having a meeting at the end of February," he says, "and it's basically Alaska, Canada and Scandinavia. There's no one from Russia coming."
On top of that, western scientists no longer have access to field sites in Russia, he says. Instead, they have to rely on what they can see from space, from satellite images of beaver dams. "You can do a lot from space, but you need to have some boots on the ground confirming what you're seeing," Tape explains.
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| Study details potential future Railbelt energy needs, projects | Published Jan 21, 2024 by Jack Barnwell Researchers with the Alaska Center for Energy and Power at the University of Alaska Fairbanks debuted the results of two years worth of study and modeling Tuesday about the Railbelt’s future options.
The Railbelt Decarbonization Study’s first phase examines four potential ways to improve the Railbelt grid, find an economical solution as energy demands increase through 2050 and examine different scenarios.
The research team includes ACEP researchers Phylicia Cicilio, Jeremy VanderMeer and Steve Colt, along with Derek Denclik and Matt Richwine of Telos Energy.
Cicilo said the project included weekly consultations with an advisory group of the Railbelt utilities. The U.S. Navy’s Office of Naval Research and an Alaska state economic development grant funded the study.
The presentation drew a larger crowd in Anchorage as well as over 50 people who attended virtually, with prompt discussion and questions.
According to the report, electricity demands will reach 1,625 megawatts by 2050, more than double the 2021 levels. The estimates are based on projected growths in population electric vehicle use and adoption of heat pumps.
The Railbelt serves 75% of Alaska’s residents from Fairbanks and Delta Junction to Seldovia and includes five cooperative utilities.
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| | Report peers into Alaska’s energy future | Published Jan 20, 2024 by Patrick Gilchrist Alaska’s energy future beckons wind, solar and something else — that was one of the major takeaways from research conducted through the Alaska Center for Energy and Power, with results presented Thursday in Anchorage.
The study examined four different paths to model Alaska’s energy future through the year 2050, painting a picture of a decarbonized Railbelt colored with strokes of economic optimization.
“Wind and solar ended up being pretty consistently the cheapest sources of energy,” contributing author Jeremy VanderMeer said during the presentation.
Because renewable energy sources are subject to the whims of nature, much of the study also focused on how to best integrate infrastructure to equal out the generation and transmission of low-carbon power across time, something of particular importance for the Railbelt.
“The stability challenges are more pronounced when you’re on an islanded or remote grid. The variability is also more challenging to maintain because we can’t lean on our neighbor when the wind drops off or the solar drops off,” contributing author Derek Stenclik pointed out.
Giant batteries, like the one Golden Valley Electric Association uses, are a step in the direction of a stable grid, because the systems can store power generated during renewables peak production to be transmitted later.
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| | Interior Alaska gathers for recycling and sustainability symposium | Published Jan 21, 2024 by Alex Bengel Residents from around the Interior and the State of Alaska came out to the Carlson Center on Friday, January 19, to learn about the often-complicated world of recycling.
From anti-freeze to eyeglasses to medical equipment to metal, a full slate of recyclables and ways to live sustainably was on display. “It’s not just about cardboard, plastic and tin cans. There’s other ways to recycle, and that’s one of the things that we really wanted to push with this,” Lane explained.
Representatives from the University of Alaska Fairbanks, the City of Fairbanks, C&R Pipe and Steel, Access Alaska, and many other businesses, non-profits and entities were on hand to answer people’s questions.
In the next room, select speakers expanded on a number of topics, including sustainability, trash collection and hazardous wastes. Discussing the goal of the event, Lane said, “We want to get away from ‘We don’t think it’s very viable in Alaska’ to ‘Wow, this is amazing.’”
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| | The gas bubbling on Kruzof Island is not from the Mt. Edgecumbe volcano - at least not yet | Published Jan 20, 2024 by Robert Woolsey, KCAW Research work last summer on the Mt. Edgecumbe crater near Sitka has shed some light on what may be happening below the mountain, which began to show signs of life almost two years ago. The movement of magma remains very deep, and isn’t producing any measurable volcanic gases at the surface.
A doctoral researcher at UAF recently shared her data with the Sitka Rotary Club.
Claire Puleio is working on her PhD at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. Mt. Edgecumbe caught her eye at about the same time as everyone else, when an earthquake swarm was detected under the crater in the spring of 2022. Subsequent satellite measurements showed that the slopes of the mountain had been deforming at a rate of nearly four inches a year, and surface temperatures on some parts of Kruzof Island were warming.
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| | Interior Alaska experiences 5.3 magnitude earthquake | Published Jan 20, 2024 by Staff Reporter Interior Alaska felt a strong shaking from a 5.3 magnitude earthquake that occurred on Friday, Jan. 19 at 12:34 p.m. The epicenter of the quake was 2.5 mile southwest of Salcha at a depth of 4 miles, according to the Alaska Earthquake Center.
The United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports approximately 30 small aftershocks have occurred since 2 p.m. and estimates there is a 66% chance of at least one 3 magnitude or greater within the next week.
The strongest reported shaking was in the Salcha, Big Delta areas and near Eielson Air Force Base with moderate shaking in the Fairbanks, North Pole, Two Rivers and Fox areas. Nenana also reported strong shaking. | | | Readership | 50,375 | Social Amplification | 0 |
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| | It’s just not just you, January has been unusually warm and windy | Published Jan 19, 2024 by https://www.kyuk.org/people/sunni-bean For residents of the Yukon-Kuskokwim (Y-K) Delta, the unseasonably warm weather this January has been hard to miss. It resulted in the postponement of the Bogus Creek 150 sled dog race, and Bethel Search and Rescue banned trucks from driving on the river. University of Alaska Fairbanks Climate Specialist Rick Thoman confirmed that it has been the warmest start to the new year in three decades. He said that it’s also been unusually windy, with average winds over 17 miles per hour for the first 17 days of the month.
“For Bethel, we saw significantly colder than normal December, including the lowest temperature on Christmas in 60 years,” Thoman said. “But as seems like happening so often, we flip the calendar and the weather changes. And, of course, the first 17 days of January have been exceptionally mild. The average temperature at Bethel, the first 17 days of the month, is the highest start to January in more than 30 years. You have to go back to 1993.”
Thoman described this as a yo-yo kind of winter. It came after a cold summer, but that’s not why it’s a mild winter. The region had an even colder summer in 2021. Thoman said that people like to blame the warm weather on El Niño, a warming climate phenomenon that causes irregular patterns of wind and sea surface temperatures. But it’s not uncommon for the Y-K Delta to see big swings in weather, even though this winter seems to be more pronounced than usual.
“This looks like it's just pretty much the standard of variability that we see in the storm track. Maybe just enhanced in just how sudden those flips have been,” Thoman said. “And then we slip into a stable pattern, and then that lasts for two or three weeks. So I guess at this point, we'll just chalk it up to the random variability of the weather.”
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